| Posted June 2, 2005:
One of the things we say over and over in this column
is “food is different.” Those words came to mind
as we read a story in the May 11, 2005 issue of China Daily
about the development of a “super wheat.” The
story was about a Chinese agronomist, Liu Binghua, who has
developed a variety of wheat that should earn the designation
“super wheat” when harvest is completed in June.
The article notes that, if successful, the research led by
Liu could bring about a doubling of China’s average
wheat yield. In 2004, the average wheat yield in China was
62.17 bushels per acre, well above the US average of 43.14.
In test plots last year, the highest wheat yield was 159 bushel
per acre, a yield that Kansas and North Dakota wheat farmers
can only dream of.
In addition to yield, Chinese researchers are working on
adapting this high yielding wheat variety to the varied weather
and soil conditions in China, including the high-altitude
area of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Breeding in drought tolerance
is also a breeding priority.
While the agronomic advances are interesting, what caught
our eye was the context into which the China Daily journalist
placed the story. The focus of the story was not that Chinese
agronomists are conducting world-class, cutting-edge research
on wheat production. Rather, the focus of the story was made
clear by the China Daily headline: “Wheat harvest to
enhance food security.”
The article indicates that China Agricultural University
projects that the population of China in 2030 will be 1.6
billion, up from today’s 1.3 billion. The projected
demand for grain to feed the increased population is between
9.5 billion bushels (60 lb. bu. equivalent) and 10.7 billion
bushel equivalent. Currently China’s grain production
stands at 6.7 billion bushel equivalent.
The article makes it clear that the preferred way of reaching
that goal is to increase Chinese domestic production: “As
the nation grows increasingly alarmed by the international
catchwords ‘food security,’ it has never ceased
its efforts in grinding out super-yield crops to feed its
growing population.”
In 1963, when Liu was in senior middle school, his experience
of hunger set him on the path that he has followed throughout
his life. “‘Unconsciously, I have been on a mission
to find solutions to yield more crops for the nation ever
since,’ said Liu, adding that starvation happened even
in Henan, a staple province for China’s wheat planting.”
The average wheat yield in China in 1963 was 11.55 bu./ac.
compared to 25.18 in the US during that same year. In the
intervening years, US wheat yields have increased by 72% while
Chinese yields have increased by 438%, a testimony to the
importance China places on increasing its ability to feed
its population. As the article says: “China feeds 22%
of the world’s population on only 7% of the world’s
arable land. That means grain security must be placed at the
top of the government’s agenda.”
Many countries view food security in the same way that we
view military security in the US. Food is different. If the
US, which has never experienced a major famine, seeks to maintain
its domestic base of food production so it does not become
dependent on imports, how much more might that be true for
a country like China, which has experienced famine within
the lifetime of many of its residents?
Daryll E. Ray holds the Blasingame Chair of Excellence
in Agricultural Policy, Institute of Agriculture, University
of Tennessee, and is the Director of UT's Agricultural Policy
Analysis Center (APAC). (865) 974-7407; Fax: (865) 974-7298;
dray@utk.edu; http://www.agpolicy.org.
Daryll Ray's column is written with the research and assistance
of Harwood D. Schaffer, Research Associate with APAC.
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